The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.Philip Tetlock
We are all forecasters. When we think about changing jobs, getting married, buying a home, making an investment, launching a product or retiring, we decide based on how we expect the future to unfold.Philip Tetlock
When you encounter a forecast, the first question you should ask is not Can I trust this forecast? It’s Does the forecaster have any skin in the game?Philip Tetlock
Superforecasting demands thinking that is open-minded, careful, curious, and—above all—self-critical. It also demands focus. The kind of thinking that produces superior judgment does not come effortlessly. Only the determined can deliver it reasonably consistently, which is why our analyses have consistently found commitment to self-improvement to be the strongest predictor of performance.Philip Tetlock
Beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded.Philip Tetlock
Recognize the complexity of the world and resist the impression that you easily understand it. People are too quick to accept conventional wisdom, because it sounds basically true and it tends to be reinforced by both their peers and opinion leaders, many of whom have never looked at whether the facts support the received wisdom.Philip Tetlock
Outcome=Decision Quality+Luck. Recognize the role of luck. But also recognize that the quality of decisions counts too and over the long term, skill will out.Philip Tetlock
Forecasts are exercises in weighing up probabilities, not certainties.Philip Tetlock
Remember that although the underlying reality is complicated, it is still regular enough to allow superforecasting. There are patterns in the world, even if they are complex, multivariate, probabilistic, and contingent.Philip Tetlock
Tolerating uncertainty is a prerequisite to superforecasting, which means there are sometimes multiple, conflicting perspectives that all must be weighed and then integrated into a single picture that reflects the best judgment of the forecaster.Philip Tetlock