The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.Nate Silver
Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.Nate Silver
If you have reason to think that yesterday's forecast went wrong, there is no glory in sticking to it.Nate Silver
Big Data has arrived, but big insights have not. The challenge now is to solve new problems and gain new answers.Nate Silver
Overconfidence is a powerful source of illusions, primarily determined by the quality and coherence of the story that you can construct, not by its validity.Nate Silver
The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.Nate Silver
From data does not necessarily come wisdom, but this is certain: you won't get wisdom without data.Nate Silver
The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information.Nate Silver
In other words, we focus on what we know, and we neglect what we do not know, which makes us overly confident in our beliefs.Nate Silver
Our bias is to think we are better at prediction than we really are.Nate Silver