Reality is far more vicious than Russian roulette. First, it delivers the fatal bullet rather infrequently, like a revolver that would have hundreds, even thousands of chambers instead of six. After a few dozen tries, one forgets about the existence of a bullet, under a numbing false sense of security. Second, unlike a well-defined precise game like Russian roulette, where the risks are visible to anyone capable of multiplying and dividing by six, one does not observe the barrel of reality.Nassim Nicholas Taleb
One cannot judge a performance in any given field (war, politics, medicine, investments) by the results, but by the costs of the alternative (i.e., if history played out in a different way).Nassim Nicholas Taleb
In the markets, there is a category of traders who have inverse rare events, for whom volatility is often a source of trouble. The option sellers, for instance, bleed steadily into losses while waiting for their rare gains (picking up pennies in front of a steamroller).Nassim Nicholas Taleb
It's not a good idea to take a forecast from someone wearing a tie. If someone gives you an estimate - value his knowledge, but do not give anything for his confidence.Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance.Nassim Nicholas Taleb
The only problem with the last laugh is that the winner has to laugh alone. But who cares?Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Overskilling is the enemy of risk bearing.Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Markets are binary : they go up or down. If you are a trend follower and you are wrong in your prediction, you will be wrong in your set direction (short or long) and that's it. If you are a contrarian, there are two types of errors: being wrong when you are following the crowd and being wrong when you are going against the crowd.Nassim Nicholas Taleb
For the perishable, every additional day in its life translates into a shorter additional life expectancy. For the nonperishable like technology, every additional day may imply a longer life expectancy.Nassim Nicholas Taleb
There is another entity that, like the hotel, does not like uncertainty, but fares rather poorly in its handling: our brain.Nassim Nicholas Taleb