Introduction to Predictions

Rise and Fall of Prediction

Prediction in Politics and Economy

Impact of Personal Bias on Prediction

Statistical Models in Prediction

The Role of Big Data in Predictions

Understanding Uncertainty in Predictions

Importance of Bayesian Thinking in Predictions

Predicting Future Trends and Challenges

Learning from Failed and Successful Predictions

The Signal and the Noise, written by the statistician Nate Silver, explores the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often dramatically. Silver develops a mathematical model for what makes a good prediction and why some predictions may fail. It's no magic bullet, but it is a great tool and a must-read for anyone interested in trying to make sense of our uncertain world.

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't